NEAM Insights | Non-US

2025 U.S. Life Industry Investment Highlights: Strong Yields, Moderating Income Growth

mark.yu@neamgroup.com (Mark Yu) — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Executive Summary

In 2025, the U.S. life insurance industry’s net investment income continued to rise, though at a slower pace, extending the upward trend since 2023. Supported by elevated interest rates, book yield increased to 4.85%, its highest level in a decade, from a recent low of 3.78% in 2021.

2025 P&C Industry Investment Highlights: Elevated Yields Persist as Income Growth Moderates

mark.yu@neamgroup.com (Mark Yu) — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Executive Summary

In 2025, the U.S. P&C insurance industry’s net investment income declined modestly, as lower equity dividend income more than offset the benefits of higher bond yields. Nevertheless, book yield for the industry reached a decade high of 4.39%, extending its upward trend since 2021.

Market Watch: 2Q 2026

Paul Taaffe — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

2Q 2026 UK Economy Overview

As oil prices finished the second quarter roughly US$3 above the level seen for a barrel of oil in the days leading up to the 27 February conflict escalation in the Middle East, inflation in the UK, too, fell as the quarter closed. Headline CPI rose to 3.3% in March, driven by higher fuel and energy costs, before easing to 2.8% in both April and May as lower regulated electricity prices and softer services inflation more than offset continued strength in energy inflation. In its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank of England (BoE) had expected inflation to reach 3.0% and 3.3% in April and May, respectively. Core inflation also moderated, falling from 3.1% to 2.6% over the quarter, while services inflation declined from 4.5% to 3.7%, suggesting limited evidence of significant second-round effects thus far.

Trade Winds: July 2026

coley.lynch@neamgroup.com (Coley Lynch) — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 04:00:00 GMT

June Overview

June marked the first FOMC meeting under Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, with the committee maintaining the funds-rate target at 3.50%–3.75% in a unanimous vote. The shorter statement removed explicit forward guidance while still describing an expanding economy facing uncertainty and inflation that remains above target. The updated Summary of Economic Projections leaned more cautious: 2026 growth was trimmed, near-term inflation assumptions rose, unemployment was little changed, and the median policy-rate path shifted higher. The message is that the Fed still views activity as durable, but it is less willing to assume disinflation will resume quickly; the hurdle for easing has risen.

The Fed’s New Regime: Less Talk, More Shock

jennifer.quisenberry@neamgroup.com (Jenn Quisenberry) — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 04:00:00 GMT

During his Senate confirmation hearing, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh called for “regime change” at the Fed to restore its credibility. The June 17 FOMC meeting gave markets a first glimpse of what that could look like: a more hawkish tone, a renewed focus on the inflation mandate, and a decisive step away from the forward-guidance-heavy playbook of the post-financial-crisis era. In this new regime, investors may receive fewer signals from the Fed, leaving markets more vulnerable to sharp reactions when key economic data or policy pronouncements surprise.

Trade Winds: June 2026

coley.lynch@neamgroup.com (Coley Lynch) — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 04:00:00 GMT

May Overview

Fed minutes from the last FOMC meeting highlighted a shifting policy tendency of the committee, from one with an “easing bias” to a more balanced two-way outlook for future interest rate decisions to account for persistently elevated inflation. While participants generally saw a potentially longer holding pattern until more certainty emerged on the economic implications from the Middle East conflict, the minutes shared that “many participants” would have favored a statement that removed an easing bias regarding future policy decisions.

Private Credit vs. Subprime Mortgages: Familiar Risks, Different Consequences

jennifer.quisenberry@neamgroup.com (Jenn Quisenberry) — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Private credit’s rapid expansion has prompted echoes of the subprime lending boom, raising the question of whether another financial stress event could follow. While the comparison is useful given the similarities in borrower weakness, leverage, and limited transparency, it should not be overstated. Private credit appears vulnerable to credit losses and repricing, but lacks the degree of interconnectedness, short-term funding dependence, and transmission into the banking system that made subprime mortgages systemically destructive. In the end, private credit is a market that may prove painful for some investors and borrowers, but it is less likely to trigger a broad financial shock.

Trade Winds: May 2026

coley.lynch@neamgroup.com (Coley Lynch) — Fri, 08 May 2026 04:00:00 GMT

April Overview

Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting provided insight into potential outcomes at the April meeting. At the time of the March meeting, the committee felt that risks to both the inflation and employment sides of its mandate were “elevated,” with conflict in the Middle East magnifying these challenges.

Property Versus Casualty: Investment Trend Comparisons of Shorter-Tail and Longer-Tail Focused U.S. Insurance Carriers

chris.myers@neamgroup.com (Chris Myers) — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Executive Summary

Products of property-focused insurers tend to have attritional and catastrophic loss claims that materialize and settle over a relatively short time-period once a loss-event occurs. In contrast, incurred losses related to casualty-focused insurance products may take several years to fully materialize and settle. We focus on commercial property insurers and commercial casualty insurers to see if their respective underwriting focus corresponds to any differences in their respective investment strategies.¹ Our findings identified noteworthy characteristics that distinguished the investment portfolios of these carrier types from 2015 to 2024. Property insurers produced strong investment yields, but slower surplus growth relative to their casualty counterparts. Casualty insurers had more conservative asset allocations compared to property insurers. Historically, casualty insurers maintained longer duration portfolios relative to property insurers, but recent data suggests this may no longer be the case. This issue of Perspectives will explore the data behind these findings.

Trade Winds: April 2026

coley.lynch@neamgroup.com (Coley Lynch) — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:00:00 GMT

March Overview

The Fed held steady at its most recent meeting, keeping its policy rate range at current levels. With the labor market stable but moderating, inflation still above target and geopolitical uncertainty rising, Chair Powell emphasized that future policy decisions would remain data-dependent. The Fed also commented that the economy appears on track, supported by “resilient” consumer spending and increasing business investment. Their median economic estimates showed GDP increasing over the next three years along with higher headline and core inflation. Unemployment projections remained relatively constant, with the rate expected to fall in 2027, albeit to a lesser extent than previously envisioned. Against the backdrop of rising Middle East tensions, uncertainty around these projections increased, particularly with respect to inflation. Despite this uncertainty, the median projection continues to reflect one rate cut in 2026, followed by an additional 25 basis point reduction in 2027.